2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

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Not to be confused with 2020 Massachusetts Senate election.
2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts
← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
  Edward Markey, official portrait, 114th Congress.jpg x150px
Nominee Ed Markey Kevin O'Connor
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Ed Markey
Democratic


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The 2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. On September 1, incumbent Senator Ed Markey defeated U.S. Representative Joe Kennedy III in a competitive primary for the Democratic nomination and Kevin O'Connor defeated Shiva Ayyadurai for the Republican nomination.

Democratic primary

The state primary election took place on September 1, 2020.[1] Incumbent Senator Ed Markey was challenged by U.S. Representative Joe Kennedy III. Kennedy and Markey have similar political positions, though Markey is considered more liberal on the DW-Nominate scale.[2] An elected senator has not been defeated in a primary since Richard Lugar in 2012, and an elected Democrat has not been defeated since Joe Lieberman in 2006.[3]

Support from within the Democratic Party was divided. Markey received support from the DSCC, Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer, and DSCC chair Catherine Cortez Masto. He was also endorsed by key figures in the party's progressive wing, such as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, fellow Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, and the youth-led Sunrise Movement.[4] Kennedy received various endorsements from the House leadership, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi (which was noteworthy because speakers rarely endorse candidates in competitive primaries, especially challengers to incumbents),[5][6] House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer,[7] House Democratic Caucus chair Hakeem Jeffries,[8] House Intelligence Committee chair Adam Schiff,[9] and House Democratic Senior Chief Deputy Whip John Lewis.[10]

Markey's margin of victory of 10.8% was attributed to his unexpected strength among progressives and younger voters.[11][12] Kennedy's loss marked the first time a member of the Kennedy family had lost an election in Massachusetts.[13][14]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Joe Kennedy III, US Representative from Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

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Joe Kennedy III vs. Ed Markey
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Date updated Joe
Kennedy III		 Ed
Markey		 Undecided[lower-alpha 1] Margin
RealClearPolitics July 31 – August 27, 2020 August 27, 2020 40.8% 52.0% 7.2% Markey +11.2
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Ed
Markey		 Maura
Healey		 Shannon
Liss-Riordan		 Joe
Kennedy III		 Seth
Moulton		 Steve
Pemberton		 Allen
Waters		 Other Undecided
Emerson College/WHDH August 25–27, 2020 453 (LV) ± 4.6% 56% – – 44% – – – – –
Data for Progress August 24–25, 2020 731 (LV) ± 4% 50% – – 43% – – – – 7%
Suffolk University August 23–25, 2020 500 (LV) – 51% – – 41% – – – 0%[lower-alpha 3] 8%
UMass Lowell August 13–21, 2020 800 (LV) ± 4.1% 52% – – 40% – – – 2%[lower-alpha 4] 6%
SurveyUSA/Priorities for Progress August 12–16, 2020 558 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% – – 42% – – – – 15%
UMassAmherst/WCVB July 31 – August 7, 2020 362 (LV) ± 7.0% 51% – – 36% – – – 1% 12%
JMC Analytics and Polling July 29–30, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% – – 41% – – – – 16%
Emerson College May 5–6, 2020 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% – – 58% – – – – –
University of Massachusetts Lowell April 27 – May 1, 2020 531 (LV) ± 7.8% 42% – – 44% – – – 4%[lower-alpha 5] 10%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ[1][2] February 26–28, 2020 465 (LV) ± 4.4% 36% – – 42% – – – 1%[lower-alpha 6] 21%
UMass Amherst/WCVB[3] February 18–24, 2020 400 (LV) ± 5.9% 43% – – 40% – – – 4% 13%
UMass Lowell/YouGov February 12–19, 2020 450 (LV) ± 6.1% 34% – – 35% – – – – 23%
Jan 17, 2020 Liss-Riordan withdraws from the race
Dec 16, 2019 Waters withdraws from the race
Oct 14, 2019 Pemberton withdraws from the race
Sep 21, 2019 Kennedy announces his candidacy
Suffolk University/Boston Globe September 3–5, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 28% – – 42% – – – – 29%
26% – <1% 35% – 1% 0% – 36%
Change Research August 23–25, 2019 808 (RV) ± 3.5% 25% – 5% 42% – 7% – – –
Jul 23, 2019 Pemberton announces his candidacy
Suffolk University June 5–9, 2019 370 (LV) ± 5.1% 44% – 5% – – 5% – – 45%
May 20, 2019 Liss-Riordan announces her candidacy[168]
May 19, 2019 Healey announces that she will not run
Apr 1, 2019 Waters announces his candidacy[169]
Dec 14, 2018 Moulton announces that he will not run[170]
YouGov/UMass Amherst November 7–14, 2018 635 (RV) – 26% 27% – – – – – – 35%
636 (RV) – 29% – – – 25% – – – 38%
Oct 5, 2018 Markey announces his candidacy
Suffolk University September 13–17, 2018 433 (LV) – 24% – – – 18% – – – 45%

Debates

Results

File:2020 Senate Democratic primary in Massachusetts by municipality.svg
Unofficial results by municipality, via WBUR as of September 2

Markey defeated his challenger, Joe Kennedy III.[171] Kennedy is the first member of the Kennedy family to lose an election in Massachusetts.[172]

Democratic primary results[173]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ed Markey (incumbent) 782,694 55.35%
Democratic Joe Kennedy III 629,359 44.51%
Democratic Write-ins 1,935 0.14%
Total votes 1,413,988 100.0%

Republican primary

The state primary election took place on September 1, 2020.[1]

Candidates

Nominee

  • Kevin O'Connor, attorney and partner at Hinckley Allen[174][175]

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Results

File:2020 Senate Republican primary in Massachusetts by municipality.svg
Unofficial results by municipality, via The New York Times as of September 5
Republican primary results[173]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kevin O'Connor 158,590 59.71%
Republican Shiva Ayyadurai 104,782 39.45%
Republican Write-ins 2,245 0.84%
Total votes 265,617 100.0%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Failed to qualify for the General Election

Results

Libertarian primary results[173]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Other Write-ins 3,390 99.21%
Libertarian Vermin Supreme (write-in) 27 0.79%
Total votes 3,417 100.0%

Green Party

Withdrawn

  • Andre "Maha Visnu" Gray, Co-Chair of the Massachusetts Green-Rainbow Party, teacher, and businessman[175][182]

Independents

Write-in candidate

  • Shiva Ayyadurai (switched to this candidacy after losing Republican primary)[178]

Withdrawn

General election

The general election will take place on November 3, 2020.[1]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[185] Safe D August 17, 2020
Inside Elections[186] Safe D September 18, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[187] Safe D August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[188] Safe D August 31, 2020
Politico[189] Safe D September 9, 2020
RCP[190] Safe D September 17, 2020
Niskanen[191] Safe D September 15, 2020
DDHQ[192] Safe D September 16, 2020
538[193] Safe D September 18, 2020

Endorsements

Polling

Hypothetical polling
with Charlie Baker
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Ed
Markey (D)		 Charlie
Baker (R)		 Undecided
Change Research August 23–25, 2019 1,008 (RV) ± 3.1% 44% 45% –
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Shannon
Liss-Riordan (D)		 Charlie
Baker (R)		 Undecided
Change Research August 23–25, 2019 1,008 (RV) ± 3.1% 35% 54% –
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Kennedy III (D)		 Charlie
Baker (R)		 Undecided
Change Research August 23–25, 2019 1,008 (RV) ± 3.1% 49% 41% –
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Steve
Pemberton (D)		 Charlie
Baker (R)		 Undecided
Change Research August 23–25, 2019 1,008 (RV) ± 3.1% 31% 56% –

Results

United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2020
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Ed Markey (incumbent) {{{change}}}
Republican Kevin O'Connor {{{change}}}
Write-in
Total votes 100.0%

See also

Notes

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References

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Further reading

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External links

Official campaign websites
  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  2. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  3. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.. Arlen Specter, who was elected as a Republican but switched parties to Democratic, was defeated in 2010 during his first Democratic primary.
  4. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  5. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  10. ↑ 10.00 10.01 10.02 10.03 10.04 10.05 10.06 10.07 10.08 10.09 10.10 10.11 10.12 10.13 10.14 10.15 10.16 10.17 10.18 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  13. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  14. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.. Robert F. Kennedy was not on the ballot in Massachusetts in the 1968 Democratic Party presidential primaries and finished second to Eugene McCarthy as a write-in candidate.
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  268. ↑ https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2020/09/01/heres-who-charlie-baker-voted-for-in-the-massachusetts-senate-primary/amp
  269. ↑ https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/08/28/herald-endorses-kevin-oconnor-for-u-s-senate/amp/


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