Ukraine–NATO relations

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  Ukraine

Relations between Ukraine and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) started in 1994. Ukraine applied to join the NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) in 2008. Plans for NATO membership were shelved by Ukraine following the 2010 presidential election in which Viktor Yanukovych, who preferred to keep the country non-aligned, was elected President. In 2010 the Ukrainian parliament voted to exclude "integration into Euro-Atlantic security and NATO membership" from the country's national security strategy.

Amid the Euromaidan unrest, Yanukovych fled Ukraine in February 2014. The interim Yatsenyuk Government which came to power, initially said, with reference to the country's non-aligned status, that it had no plans to join NATO. However, following the Russian military intervention in Ukraine and parliamentary elections in October 2014, the new government made joining NATO a priority. On 23 December 2014, the Ukrainian parliament renounced Ukraine's non-aligned status that "proved to be ineffective in guaranteeing Ukraine's security and protecting the country from external aggression and pressure".

As of 2013, Ukraine and NATO held joint seminars and joint tactical and strategical exercises and operations. Russia's reaction to the 2008 plan of the then Ukrainian Government to join MAP was hostile. Nevertheless, the following year, NATO spokesman said that despite Russian opposition to NATO's eastward expansion the alliance's door remained open to those who met the criteria.

According to polls conducted between 2005 and 2013, Ukrainian public support of NATO membership remained low. A 2009 Gallup poll asked Ukrainians whether they saw NATO as a threat or protection for Ukraine; 40% saw NATO as a threat, 17% saw NATO as protection, and 33% saw NATO as neither. However, since the start of the 2014 Russian military intervention in Ukraine, public support for Ukrainian membership in NATO has risen greatly. In June 2014, nearly 50% of those asked voice support; in an October 2014 poll this number had risen to over 50%. According to the poll conducted in December 2015 by the Kyiv-based Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, 75% of Ukrainians would support the NATO membership if there was a referendum.

History of relations

Ukrainian APC along a highway from Al Kut to As Suwayrah in Iraq (late 2003)

File:Defense.gov News Photo 051024-F-5586B-016.jpg

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Victoria Nuland at the NATO–Ukraine consultations in Vilnius, Lithuania, on October 24, 2005

The 2006 anti-NATO protests in Feodosiya

Relations officially began when Ukraine became the first CIS country to enter NATO's Partnership for Peace program in February 1994. In the summer of 1995 NATO stepped up to help to mitigate consequences of the Kharkiv Drinking Water Disaster. This was the first cooperation between NATO and Ukraine. On May 7, 1997 the first-ever official NATO Information and Documentation Center opened in Kyiv, aimed to foster transparency about the alliance. A Ukrainian public opinion poll of May 6 showed 37% in favor of joining NATO with 28% opposed and 34% undecided. On July 9, 1997, a NATO-Ukraine Commission was established. In 2002 relations with the governments of the United States and other NATO countries deteriorated after one of the recordings made during the Cassette Scandal revealed an alleged transfer of a sophisticated Ukrainian defense system to Saddam Hussein's Iraq. At the NATO enlargement summit in November 2002, the NATO–Ukraine commission adopted a Ukraine–NATO Action Plan. President Kuchma's declaration that Ukraine wanted to join NATO (also in 2002) and the sending of Ukrainian troops to Iraq in 2003 could not mend relations between Kuchma and NATO. Currently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are working with NATO in Iraq.

After the Orange Revolution in 2004 Kuchma was replaced by President Viktor Yushchenko who is a keen supporter of Ukraine's NATO membership. In January 2008 the second Yulia Tymoshenko cabinet's proposal for Ukraine to join NATO's Membership Action Plan was met with opposition. A petition of over 2 million signatures has called for a referendum on Ukraine's membership proposal to join NATO. The opposition have called for a national referendum to be held on any steps towards further involvement with NATO. In February 2008 57.8% of Ukrainians supported the idea of a national referendum on joining NATO, against 38.6% in February 2007.

Ukrainian bid to join the NATO Membership Action Plan

In January 2008, US Senator Richard Lugar said: "Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and Parliamentary Chairman Arseniy Yatsenyuk have signed the statement calling for consideration on Ukraine's entry into the NATO membership action plan at the Bucharest summit."

The Ukrainian parliament headed by Arseniy Yatsenyuk was unable to hold its regular parliamentary session following the decision of the Parliamentary Opposition to prevent the parliament from functioning in a protest against joining NATO. The parliament was blocked from January 25, 2008 till March 4, 2008 (on 29 February 2008 faction leaders agreed on a protocol of mutual understanding). US President George W. Bush and both nominees for President of the United States in the 2008 election, U.S. senator Barack Obama and U.S. senator John McCain, did offer backing to Ukraine's membership of NATO. Russian reactions were negative.

Bucharest summit: 2008–2009

At the NATO summit in Bucharest in April 2008, NATO decided it would not yet offer membership to Georgia and Ukraine; nevertheless, Nato Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said that Georgia and Ukraine would eventually become members. Resistance was reportedly met from France and Germany.

In November 2008, Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel, Prime-Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and former Ukrainian minister of defence Anatolii Hrytsenko doubted Ukraine would be granted membership of MAP in December 2008. In a Times of London interview in late November, President Yushchenko stated : "Ukraine has done everything it had to do. We are devoted to this pace. Everything else is an issue of political will of those allies who represent NATO." Although NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary-General Aurelia Bouchez and NATO's Secretary General, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer still supported Ukraine's NATO bid at the time the Bush administration seemed not to push for Georgian and Ukrainian membership of MAP late November 2008. President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev responded that "reason has prevailed". On December 3, 2008 NATO decided it will work out an Annual National Programme of providing assistance to Ukraine to implement reforms required to accede the alliance without referring to MAP.

At the NATO-Ukraine consultations at the level of Defense Ministers held at the NATO headquarters in Brussels in November 2009, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen praised Ukraine's first Annual National Program, which outlined the steps it intended to take to accelerate internal reform and alignment with Euro-Atlantic standards, as an important step on Ukraine's path to becoming a member of the Alliance.

Yanukovych Presidency

Candidate during the 2010 presidential election and Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych stated during 2010 presidential election-campaign that the current level of Ukraine's cooperation with NATO was sufficient and that the question of the country's accession to the alliance was therefore not urgent.

Following the election, on 14 February 2010, the newly elected President Viktor Yanukovych said that Ukraine's relations with NATO were currently "well-defined", and that there was "no question of Ukraine joining NATO". He said the issue of Ukrainian membership of NATO might "emerge at some point, but we will not see it in the immediate future."

On 1 March 2010, during his visit to Brussels, Yanukovych said that there would be no change to Ukraine's status as a member of the alliance's outreach program. He later reiterated during a trip to Moscow that Ukraine would remain a "European, non-aligned state."

(As of May 2010) NATO and Ukraine continued to cooperate in the frame of the Annual National Program, including joint exercises. According to Ukraine the continuation of Ukraine-NATO cooperation does not exclude the development of a strategic partnership with Russia.

On 27 May 2010, Yanukovych stated that he considered Ukraine's relations with NATO as a partnership, "And Ukraine can't live without this [partnership], because Ukraine is a large country".

On 3 June 2010, the Ukrainian parliament passed a bill proposed by the President that excluded the goal of "integration into Euro-Atlantic security and NATO membership" from the country's national security strategy. The law precluded Ukraine's membership of any military bloc, but allowed for co-operation with alliances such as NATO. "European integration" is still part of Ukraine's national security strategy.

On 24 June 2010, the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers approved an action plan to implement an annual national program of cooperation with NATO in 2010. This included:

• Involvement of Ukrainian aviation and transport material in the transportation of cargo and personnel of the armed forces of NATO's member states and partners participating in NATO-led peacekeeping missions and operations
• The continuation of Ukraine's participation in a peacekeeping operation in Kosovo
• Possible reinforcing of Ukraine's peacekeeping contingents in Afghanistan and Iraq
• Ukraine's participation in a number of international events organized by NATO
• Training of Ukrainian troops in the structures of NATO members

Ukraine and NATO continued to hold joint seminars and joint tactical and strategical exercises and operations during Yanukovych Presidency.

Euromaidan and beyond

Yanukovych fled Ukraine amid the Euromaidan uprising in February 2014. As a result of this revolution, the interim Yatsenyuk Government came to power in Ukraine. The Yatsenyuk Government initially stated it did not have the intention of making Ukraine a member of NATO.

NATO officials vowed support for Ukraine and worked to downplay tensions between the bloc and Russia, which refused to recognize the impeachment of Yanukovych or the Yatsenyuk Government. In late February 2014, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Secretary General of NATO, reaffirmed that NATO membership is still an option for Ukraine.

On 29 August 2014, following reports that the Russian military was operating within Ukraine, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk announced that he would ask the Ukrainian parliament to put Ukraine on a path towards NATO membership. The government has also signaled that it hopes for major non-NATO ally status with the United States, NATO's largest military power and contributor. As part of these efforts, and to rule out future Ukrainian membership in the Eurasian Economic Union and other Russian-led supranational entities, Yatseniuk also submitted a draft law to repeal Ukraine's non-bloc status previously instituted by Yanukovych. Following parliamentary elections in October 2014, the new government made joining NATO a priority.

On 23 December 2014 the Ukrainian parliament renounced Ukraine's non-aligned status, a step harshly condemned by Russia. The new law states that Ukraine's previous non-aligned status "proved to be ineffective in guaranteeing Ukraine's security and protecting the country from external aggression and pressure" and also aims to deepen Ukrainian cooperation with NATO "in order to achieve the criteria which are required for membership in the alliance". On 29 December 2014 Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko (elected president on 25 May 2014) vowed to hold a referendum on joining NATO.

A number of military exercises are now planned between NATO members and Ukraine in 2015. Among them are Operation Fearless Guardian (total 2,200 participants, including 1,000 U.S. military). Initial personnel and equipment of the 173rd Airborne Brigade arrived in Yavoriv, Lviv Oblast, on 10 April 2015. Fearless Guardian will train Ukraine's newly formed National Guard under the Congress-approved Global Contingency Security Fund. Under the program, the United States will begin training three battalions of Ukrainian troops over a six-month period beginning in April 2015, Others exercises include Exercise Sea Breeze 2015 (total 2,500 personnel of which 1,000 US military and 500 military from NATO or “Partnership for Peace” countries), “Saber Guardian/Rapid Trident – 2015” (total 2,100 members, including 500 US military and 600 NATO/PfP personnel), as well as the Ukrainian-Polish air exercise “Safe Skies – 2015” (total 350 participants, including 100 Polish military) and military police “Law and Order – 2015” (total 100 participants, 50 of which are Polish military).

In September 2015, NATO launches five trust funds for €5.4 million for the Ukrainian army. €2 million are planned to be sent for the modernization of communication systems, €1.2 million – to reform the logistic and standardization systems, €845 thousand – for physical rehabilitation and prostheses, €815 thousand for cyber defense, and €410 thousand for retraining and resettlement.

Popular opinion in Ukraine

Popular support in Ukraine for NATO membership since 2002
2002-2013 Date Opinion Poll agency For Against June 2002 32% 33 % Razumkov Centre November 2004 30% 40 % University of Sussex April 2009 21% 57 % FOM-Ukraine November 2009 12.5% - Ukrainian Project System December 2009 21% 60% Democratic Initiative Foundation January 2011 24% 70 % RATING April 2011 25% 60 % IFAK Ukraine February 2012 20% 70 % RATING April 2012 15% 62 % Democratic Initiative Foundation July 2012 17% 70 % RATING October 2012 19% 66 % RATING December 2012 15% 60 % Democratic Initiative Foundation October 2013 20% 66 % Rating
2014-2016 Date Opinion Poll agency For Against March 2014 44% 47 % GfK April 2014 36% 48 % Razumkov Centre May 2014 37% 42 % Razumkov Centre May 2014 41 % 40 % Democratic Initiatives Foundation & Razumkov Centre June 2014 41 % 40 % Razumkov Centre June 2014 47 % 36 % Gorshenin Institute July 2014 44 % 34 % RATING October 2014 53 % 34 % Gorshenin Institute November 2014 51 % 25 % RATING March 2015 43.3% 33.4% Kyiv International Institute of Sociology June 2015 53% 32% Pew Research Center July 2015 63.9% 28.5% Democratic Initiatives Foundation & Razumkov Centre December 2015 75 % 11 % Democratic Initiatives Foundation January 2016 47 % 31 % RATING March 2016 45 % 30 % RATING

Western Ukraine has always been significantly more pro-NATO than the rest of the country; Eastern Ukraine is far more anti-NATO and pro-Russia than the rest of Ukraine.

A Gallup poll conducted in October 2008 showed that 45% of Ukrainians associated NATO as a threat to their country, while only 15% associated it with protection. A November 2009 poll by Ukrainian Project System relieved 40.1% of Ukrainians polled said the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) was the best global security group for Ukraine to be a part of and 33.9% of the respondents supported Ukraine's full membership in CSTO; more than 36% of the respondents of the poll said that Ukraine should remain neutral and only 12.5% supported Ukraine's accession to NATO. A 2009 Gallup poll showed that 40% of Ukrainian adults associate NATO with "Threat" and 17% with "Protection". According to a poll by Razumkov Center in March 2011 20.6% on average across Ukraine considered NATO a threat; this number was 51% in Crimea. A 2013 Gallup poll showed that 29% associated NATO with "Threat" and 17% with "Protection"; 44% viewed it as neither.

Following the annexation of Crimea by Russia and the start of the Donbass War, many Ukrainians changed their views of NATO: since the middle of 2014 polls show that majority of Ukrainians now support NATO membership.

Russian opposition to Ukrainian NATO membership

Neighbouring Russia is strongly opposed to any eastward expansion of NATO. On February 12, 2008 (then) Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia may target its missiles at Ukraine if its neighbour joins NATO and accepts the deployment of a US missile defence shield. Former Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has stated more than once his country would not allow foreign military bases on its territory; as of December 2009 NATO is not planning to deploy military bases in Ukraine.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin reportedly declared at a NATO-Russia summit in 2008 that if Ukraine joined NATO his country could contend to annex the Ukrainian East and Crimea.

During a NATO conference in Hungarian parliament on 20 November 2008 Deputy Assistant Secretary-General Aurelia Bouchez said: "We should not make a choice between NATO enlargement and Russia as we need both" and NATO's Secretary General, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer told a conference in Spain twelve days later: "The emergence of independent states within the former Soviet space is a reality. The ability of these states to determine their own future is a litmus test for the new Europe. Do we have to choose between good relations with Russia and further enlargement? My answer is no – we will not choose, will not sacrifice one for the other. It would bring new dividing lines."

In an interview with BBC of 18 November 2014 Russian President Vladimir Putin spokesmen Dmitry Peskov called for "a 100% guarantee that no-one would think about Ukraine joining NATO"; 2 days later Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg rejected this call stating it would be "violating the idea of respecting the sovereignty of Ukraine, which is a fundamental".

See also

• Enlargement of NATO
• 2006 anti-NATO protests in Feodosiya
• NATO-Ukraine Civic League
• Ukraine–European Union relations

External links

• Ukraine–NATO relations
• NATO accession support level chart (2002–2009) by Razumkov Centre