2018 New Brunswick general election

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2018 New Brunswick general election

← 2014 September 24, 2018 (2018-09-24) 2020 →

49 seats in the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick
25 seats needed for a majority
Turnout 67.34%[1] (Increase2.69pp)
  Majority party Minority party Third party
  x160px x160px x160px
Leader Blaine Higgs Brian Gallant Kris Austin
Party Progressive Conservative Liberal People's Alliance
Leader since October 22, 2016 October 27, 2012 June 5, 2010
Leader's seat Quispamsis Shediac Bay-Dieppe Fredericton-Grand Lake
Last election 21 seats, 34.64% 27 seats, 42.72% 0 seats, 2.14%
Seats before 21 24 0
Seats won 22 21 3
Seat change Increase1 Decrease3 Increase3
Popular vote 121,300 143,791 47,860
Percentage 31.89% 37.80% 12.58%
Swing Decrease2.75pp Decrease4.92pp Increase10.44pp

  Fourth party Fifth party
  x160px x160px
Leader David Coon Jennifer McKenzie
Party Green New Democratic
Leader since September 22, 2012 August 10, 2017
Leader's seat Fredericton South Ran in Saint John Harbour (lost)
Last election 1 seat, 6.61% 0 seats, 12.98%
Seats before 1 0
Seats won 3 0
Seat change Increase2 Steady
Popular vote 45,186 19,039
Percentage 11.88% 5.00%
Swing Increase5.27pp Decrease7.98pp

430px
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding.

Premier before election

Brian Gallant
Liberal

Premier after election

Brian Gallant [n 1]
Liberal

The 2018 New Brunswick general election was held on September 24, 2018,[3][4] to elect the 49 members of the 59th New Brunswick Legislature, the governing house of the province of New Brunswick, Canada.

Two smaller parties — the People's Alliance and the Greens — made breakthroughs, winning three seats each, and potentially holding the balance of power. The People's Alliance entered the legislature for the first time, while the Greens increased their seat count from one. This marked the first time since the 1991 election that four parties won representation in the legislature. The election was also contested by the provincial New Democrats, newcomers KISS NB, and eight independents.

This is the first election since 1920 that did not return a majority for any party. The Progressive Conservatives won the most seats, with 22, but incumbent Liberal Premier Brian Gallant, whose party secured only 21 seats despite winning the popular vote by six percentage points, indicated that he would seek the confidence of the legislature and attempt to form a minority government.

On September 25, Gallant met with the Lieutenant Governor Jocelyne Roy-Vienneau and received permission to continue in office.[5] On November 2, Gallant's minority government was defeated in a non-confidence vote.[6] On November 9, Progressive Conservative leader Blaine Higgs was sworn in as premier with a minority government.[2]

Timeline

  • September 22, 2014 – The New Brunswick Liberal Association, led by Brian Gallant, won a narrow majority government, defeating incumbent Premier David Alward's Progressive Conservatives, which became the second single-term government in New Brunswick's history.[7]
  • September 23, 2014 - Alward announces his resignation as Progressive Conservative leader.
  • October 18, 2014 - Bruce Fitch became interim leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.
  • December 10, 2014 - The NDP executive rejects Cardy's resignation as leader, urging him to continue and offering him a salary as he has been working as leader on a volunteer basis.
  • October 22, 2016 - Blaine Higgs becomes the leader of the Progressive Conservative Party in a leadership election.[8]
  • January 1, 2017 - Dominic Cardy resigns as leader of the NDP, and as a party member. He subsequently joins the PCs as Chief of Staff to Leader Blaine Higgs.[9][10]
  • January 8, 2017 - Rosaire L'Italien is chosen as interim leader of the NDP by the party's executive.[11]
  • August 10, 2017 - Jennifer McKenzie is acclaimed as the new leader of the NDP.[12]

Summary of seat changes

Changes in seats held (2014–2018)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Saint John East October 14, 2014 Gary Keating  Liberal Resignation November 17, 2014 Glen Savoie[a 1]  PC
Carleton May 22, 2015 David Alward  PC Resignation October 5, 2015 Stewart Fairgrieve[13]  PC
Campbellton-Dalhousie November 30, 2017 Donald Arseneault[14][15]  Liberal Resignation
Moncton Centre May 10, 2018 Chris Collins  Liberal Left the party  Independent
Edmundston-Madawaska Centre July 6, 2018 Madeleine Dubé[16]  PC Resignation
  1. NDP leader Dominic Cardy came in third

Results

3 22 21 3
PANB Progressive Conservative Liberal Green
Summary of the 2018 Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick election
Political party Party leader MLAs Votes
Candidates 2014 Dissol. 2018 ± # % ± (pp) % where
running
Progressive Conservative Blaine Higgs 49 21 21 22 1Increase 121,300 31.89% 2.75Decrease 31.89%
Liberal Brian Gallant 49 27 24 21 3Decrease 143,791 37.80% 4.92Decrease 37.80%
People's Alliance Kris Austin 30 3 3Increase 47,860 12.58% 10.44Increase 20.60%
Green David Coon 47 1 1 3 2Increase 45,186 11.88% 5.27Increase 12.41%
New Democratic Jennifer McKenzie 49 19,039 5.01% 7.97Decrease 5.01%
  KISS NB Gerald Bourque 9 366 0.10% New 0.49%
  Independent 8 1 1Decrease 2,821 0.74% 0.15Decrease 4.46%
  Vacant 2
Ballots rejected 1,412
Total 241 49 49 49 381,775 100.00%
Eligible voters and turnout 568,671 67.13% 2.48Increase
Popular vote
Liberal
  
37.80%
PC
  
31.89%
People's Alliance
  
12.58%
Green
  
11.88%
New Democratic
  
5.01%
Others
  
0.84%
Seats summary
PC
  
44.90%
Liberal
  
42.86%
People's Alliance
  
6.12%
Green
  
6.12%

Results by region

Party Name Northern Miramichi Southeastern Southern Capital Region Upper River Valley Total
  Liberal Seats 7 1 7 1 1 4 21
Popular Vote 55.18% 33.26% 42.60% 26.88% 22.49% 45.44% 37.80%
  Progressive
Conservative
Seats 1 1 5 10 4 1 22
Popular Vote 22.34% 23.62% 29.95% 46.50% 30.68% 33.46% 31.89%
  Green Seats 2 1 3
Popular Vote 9.18% 3.97% 14.32% 8.54% 17.31% 10.49% 11.88%
  People's Alliance Seats 1 2 3
Popular Vote 0.91% 35.34% 6.72% 12.78% 27.55% 8.10% 12.58%
  New Democratic Seats
Popular Vote 10.42% 3.73% 5.07% 5.04% 1.82% 2.35% 5.01%
  Other Seats
Popular Vote 1.98% 0.08% 1.34% 0.27% 0.16% 0.16% 0.84%
Total seats 8 3 14 11 8 5 49

Detailed analysis

Position attained in seats contested
Party Seats Second Third Fourth
Liberal 21 20 7 1
Progressive Conservative 22 17 10
Green 3 2 11 27
People's Alliance 3 7 15 2
New Democratic 2 6 14
Independent 1[a 1] 4
Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd-place results
Parties Seats
 Liberal  Progressive Conservative 31
 Liberal  Green 5
 Liberal  People's Alliance 2
 Liberal  New Democratic 2
 Liberal  Independent 1
 Progressive Conservative  People's Alliance 8
Total 49

Aftermath

On election night, Higgs claimed victory, saying his team had received a mandate; however, Gallant did not resign, instead stating his intent to remain in office by securing support on a vote-by-vote basis.[17] The following day, Gallant met with Lieutenant Governor Jocelyne Roy-Vienneau and received permission to continue in office and attempt to seek confidence of the legislature.[5] On September 27, Higgs met with Roy-Vienneau, and was told that if Gallant was unable to secure the confidence of the House, he would be called on to form government; shortly afterwards, Higgs called on Gallant to either resign or immediately recall the legislature.[18]

In the immediate aftermath of the election, both Kris Austin of the People's Alliance and David Coon of the Green Party were noncommittal in their support: Austin pledged to work with any party willing to work with him, but said the party won't sacrifice its "values and ideals" to do so;[19] while Coon said his caucus would take time to figure out how they would align themselves, but would not be able to work with anyone uncommitted to rights for linguistic minorities or combatting climate change.[20] Gallant opted to pursue a partnership with the Green Party, ruling out any arrangement with the PCs or PA because they don't share Liberal "values".[21] Higgs initially ruled out any formal agreements with other parties, but later said that a four-year agreement like in British Columbia would be ideal for stability.[22]

Austin agreed to support to a Progressive Conservative government for 18 months, though no formal agreement was made.[23] Coon said his party would negotiate with both the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives.[24] On October 10, Coon announced that the Green Party would not formally side with either party, and would base their votes on their own "declaration of intent". Accordingly, Coon said that their support for the throne speech depends on its "merits", and that his caucus would be free to vote their own way on the speech.[25]

The results drew notice elsewhere in Canada. Parti Québécois leader Jean-François Lisée described the results as "an advertisement for our proposal for proportional representation."[26] Andrew Weaver, leader of the Green Party of British Columbia, suggested that Coon should make an agreement with the Progressive Conservatives.[27] The Globe and Mail published an editorial calling for electoral reform,[28] as did National Post columnist Andrew Coyne.[29]

On November 1, Gallant's Liberal minority government was defeated by a non confidence vote (25-23) by the opposition Progressive Conservatives and People's Alliance.[6] On November 9, Blaine Higgs was sworn in as premier.[2]

Opinion polls

Three-day average of New Brunswick opinion polls from September 22, 2014, to the last possible date of the next election on September 24, 2018. Each line corresponds to a political party.

Polling Firm Last Day of Polling Link Liberal PC NDP Green PA
Forum Research September 23, 2018 [1] 35.8 29.4 3.6 13.8 16.4
Mainstreet Research September 21, 2018 [2] 35.2 28.8 3.2 16.0 14.8
Nanos Research September 20, 2018 [3] 37.4 30.2 9.6 10.8 12.0
Forum Research September 11, 2018 [4] 37 32 4 11 15
Leger Research September 11, 2018 [5] 41 32 8 8 10
Corporate Research Associates September 9, 2018 [6] 45 33 6 10 5
Corporate Research Associates August 19, 2018 [7] 50 30 7 7 6
MQO Research August 4, 2018 [8] 40 32 9 10
Mainstreet Research July 17, 2018 [9] 38.1 39.4 6.6 8.9
Corporate Research Associates May 31, 2018 [10] 45 31 13 7 4
MQO Research May 16, 2018 [11] 35 43 7 11 4
Corporate Research Associates March 3, 2018 [12] 43 30 13 11 3
MQO Research January 25, 2018 [13] 46 37 5 9 3
Mainstreet Research January 6, 2018 [14] 41.1 39.7 9.3 9.9
Corporate Research Associates November 29, 2017 [15] 47 28 11 9 3
MQO Research October 15, 2017 [16] 41 36 12 7
Corporate Research Associates September 6, 2017 [17] 47 32 12 7 2
MQO Research July 27, 2017 [18] 45 35 10 7 3
Mainstreet Research June 22, 2017 [19] 48 29 8 16 0
Corporate Research Associates May 31, 2017 [20] 46 33 11 6 3
MQO Research April 17, 2017 [21] 43 32 15 5 5
Corporate Research Associates March 1, 2017 [22] 51 30 12 5 2
MQO Research January 22, 2017 [23] 50 30 11 7 1
Corporate Research Associates November 30, 2016 [24] Archived 2017-02-07 at the Wayback Machine 53 30 7 9 2
MQO Research October 15, 2016 [25] 54 25 12 8 2
Corporate Research Associates August 31, 2016 [26] 54 28 8 8 2
MQO Research July 19, 2016 [27] 50 28 10 8 5
Corporate Research Associates June 1, 2016 [28] 52 25 12 9 2
MQO Research April 16, 2016 [29] 51 28 11 9 2
Corporate Research Associates March 2, 2016 [30] 45 27 18 8 2
Corporate Research Associates November 30, 2015 [31] 55 25 12 7 1
Corporate Research Associates September 10, 2015 [32] 36 28 25 10 2
Corporate Research Associates June 9, 2015 [33] 38 28 23 11 1
Corporate Research Associates March 2, 2015 [34] 54 27 9 10 1
Corporate Research Associates November 26, 2014 [35] 52 23 14 9 1
Election 2014 September 22, 2014 HTML 42.72 34.64 12.98 6.61 2.14

Candidates by region

Legend

  • bold denotes cabinet minister, speaker or party leader
  • italics denotes a potential candidate who has not received his/her party's nomination
  • † denotes an incumbent who is not running for re-election or was defeated in nomination contest
  • * denotes an incumbent seeking re-election in a new district

NOTE: Candidates' names are as registered with Elections New Brunswick

Northern

Electoral district Candidates   Incumbent
  Liberal   Progressive Conservatives   Green   NDP   PANB Other
Restigouche West Gilles LePage
4233
David Moreau
961
Charles Thériault
2540
Beverly A. Mann
263
Travis Pollock
(KISS)
62
Gilles LePage
Campbellton-Dalhousie Guy Arseneault
3720
Diane Cyr
1761
Annie Thériault
637
Thérèse Tremblay
721
Robert Boudreau
558
Vacant
Restigouche-Chaleur Daniel Guitard
4430
Charles Stewart
826
Mario Comeau
831
Paul Tremblay
621
Daniel Guitard
Bathurst West-Beresford Brian Kenny
4351
Yvon Landry
1082
Mike Rau
503
Anne-Renée Thomas
443
James Risdon
(KISS)
64
Brian Kenny
Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore Denis Landry
3550
Michelle Branch
858
Robert Kryszko
421
Jean Maurice Landry
2026
Denis Landry
Caraquet Isabelle Thériault
5420
Kevin Haché
1827
Yvon Durelle
330
Katy Casavant
548
Guilmond Hébert
(Ind.)
373
Hédard Albert[30]
Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou Wilfred Roussel
3949
Robert Gauvin
4048
Albert Rousselle
578
Philippe Tisseuil
(Ind.)
178
Wilfred Roussel
Tracadie-Sheila Keith Chiasson
4320
Claude Landry
2390
Nancy Benoit
390
Francis Duguay
1213
Stéphane Richardson
(Ind.)
544
Serge Rousselle[31]

Miramichi

Electoral district Candidates   Incumbent
  Liberal   Progressive Conservatives   Green   NDP   PANB   KISS
Miramichi Bay-Neguac Lisa Harris
3512
Debi Tozer
1741
James (Junior) Denny
349
Willie Robichaud
718
Terry Collette
2047
Lisa Harris
Miramichi Bill Fraser
2825
Peggy McLean
1154
Louann Savage
189
Douglas Mullin
110
Michelle Conroy
3788
Bill Fraser
Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin Andy Hardy
1909
Jake Stewart
2960
Byron J. Connors
447
Roger Vautour
97
Art O'Donnell
2925
Dawson Brideau
19
Jake Stewart

Southeastern

Electoral district Candidates   Incumbent
  Liberal   Progressive Conservatives   Green   NDP   PANB Other
Kent North Emery Comeau
3301
Katie Robertson
1112
Kevin Arseneau
4056
Neil Gardner
171
Roger Richard
(Ind.)
194
Bertrand LeBlanc[32]
Kent South Benoit Bourque
5595
Ricky Gautreau
1848
Alain Rousselle
1304
Serge Rémi Parent
436
Benoît Bourque
Shediac Bay-Dieppe Brian Gallant
6162
Paulin Blaise Ngweth
1353
Michel Albert
906
Michel Boudreau
764
Brian Gallant
Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé Jacques LeBlanc
5919
Marcel Doiron
2081
Greta Doucet
888
Lise Potvin
428
Victor Boudreau[32]
Memramcook-Tantramar Bernard LeBlanc
3137
Etienne Gaudet
1518
Megan Mitton
3148
Hélène Boudreau
410
Bernard LeBlanc
Dieppe Roger Melanson
5173
Pierre Brine
998
Joyce Richardson
1057
Roger Melanson
Moncton East Monique LeBlanc
3626
Marty Kingston
2771
Matthew Ian Clark
925
Anthony Crandall
424
Monique LeBlanc
Moncton Centre Rob McKee
2698
Claudette Boudreau-Turner
982
Jean-Marie Nadeau
771
Jessica Caissie
229
Kevin McClure
309
Chris Collins
(Ind.)
1200
Chris Collins
Moncton South Cathy Rogers
3099
Moira Murphy
2090
Laura Sanderson
628
Amy Johnson
249
Marilyn Crossman-Riel
466
Cathy Rogers
Moncton Northwest Courtney Pringle-Carver
2963
Ernie Steeves
3186
Keagan Slupsky
437
Cyprien Okana
297
Myrna Geldart
875
Ernie Steeves
Moncton Southwest Susy Campos
2667
Sherry Wilson
2920
Sarah Colwell
907
Hailey Duffy
503
Sherry Wilson
Riverview Brent Mazerolle
2053
R. Bruce Fitch
3701
Stephanie Coburn
542
Madison Duffy
249
Heather Collins
1005
Bruce Fitch
Albert Catherine Black
1775
Mike Holland
3479
Moranda van Geest
870
Betty Weir
375
Sharon Buchanan
1546
James Wilson
(Ind.)
87
Brian Keirstead[33]
Gagetown-Petitcodiac Brigitte Noel
1153
Ross Wetmore
3674
Marilyn Merritt-Gray
1097
Anne Marie F. Richardson
165
Craig Dykeman
1892
Carolyn MacDonald
(KISS)
56
Ross Wetmore

Southern

Electoral district Candidates   Incumbent
  Liberal   Progressive Conservatives   Green   NDP   PANB   Independent
Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins Ian Smyth
1212
Bruce N. Northrup
3816
Fred Harrison
505
Dawna Robertson
254
Jim Bedford
1874
David Raymond Amos
54
Bruce Northrup
Hampton Carley Parish
1454
Gary Crossman
3702
John Sabine
743
Layton Peck
384
Dana Hansen
1246
Gary Crossman
Quispamsis Aaron Kennedy
2078
Blaine Higgs
4691
Mark Woolsey
445
Ryan Jewkes
239
Keith Porter
795
Blaine Higgs
Rothesay Stephanie Tomilson
2001
Hugh J. (Ted) Flemming
3542
Ann McAllister
571
Josh Floyd
251
Michael Griffin
722
Ted Flemming
Saint John East Clare Manzer
1775
Glen Savoie
3017
Lynaya Astephen
373
Alex White
402
Matthew Thompson
1047
Glen Savoie
Portland-Simonds John MacKenzie
1703
Trevor A. Holder
3168
Sheila Croteau
435
Kim Blue
449
Artie Watson
191
Trevor Holder
Saint John Harbour Gerry Lowe
1865
Barry Ogden
1855
Wayne Dryer
721
Jennifer McKenzie
836
Margot Brideau
393
Ed Doherty[32]
Saint John Lancaster Kathleen Riley-Karamanos
1727
Dorothy Shephard
3001
Doug James
582
Tony Mowery
414
Paul Seelye
922
Dorothy Shephard
Kings Centre Bill Merrifield
1785
Bill Oliver
3267
Bruce Dryer
731
Susan Jane Shedd
342
Dave Peters
1454
Bill Oliver
Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West Rick Doucet
2422
Andrea Anderson-Mason
3808
Romey Frances Heuff
469
Keith LeBlanc
203
Doug Ellis
1104
Rick Doucet
Saint Croix John B. Ames
2436
Greg Thompson
3249
Donna Linton
1047
Jan Underhill
89
Joyce Wright
1466
John Ames

Capital Region

Electoral district Candidates   Incumbent
  Liberal   Progressive Conservatives   Green   NDP   PANB   KISS
Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton John Fife
2306
Mary E. Wilson
2399
Tom McLean
903
Justin Young
159
Craig Rector
1741
Jody Carr[34]
Fredericton-Grand Lake Wendy Tremblay
955
Pam Lynch
2433
Dan Weston
472
Glenna Hanley
114
Kris Austin
4799
Gerald Bourque
19
Pam Lynch
New Maryland-Sunbury Alex Scholten
2210
Jeff Carr
3844
Jenica Atwin
902
Mackenzie Thomason
143
Morris Shannon
2214
Danelle Titus
14
Jeff Carr
Fredericton South Susan Holt
1525
Scott Smith
1042
David Coon
4273
Chris Durrant
132
Bonnie Clark
616
David Coon
Fredericton North Stephen Horsman
2443
Jill Green
2182
Tamara White
1313
Scarlett Tays
139
Lynn King
1651
Stephen Horsman
Fredericton-York Amber Bishop
1652
Kirk Douglas MacDonald
2777
Amanda Wildeman
1393
Evelyne Godfrey
103
Rick DeSaulniers
3033
Sandra Bourque
34
Kirk MacDonald
Fredericton West-Hanwell Cindy Miles
2404
Dominic Cardy
2739
Susan Jonah
1490
Olivier Hébert
171
Jason Paull
1803
Brian Macdonald[35]
Carleton-York Jackie Morehouse
1556
Carl Urquhart
3118
Sue Rickards
837
Robert Kitchen
255
Gary Lemmon
2583
Lloyd Maurey
40
Carl Urquhart

Upper River Valley

Electoral district Candidates   Incumbent
  Liberal   Progressive Conservatives   Green   NDP   PANB   KISS
Carleton Christy Culberson
1197
Stewart Fairgrieve
2982
Amy Anderson
1247
Adam McAvoy
82
Stewart B. Manuel
2026
Stewart Fairgrieve
Carleton-Victoria Andrew Harvey
3116
Margaret C. Johnson
2872
Paula Shaw
503
Margaret Geldart
114
Terry Leigh Sisson
960
Carter Edgar
58
Andrew Harvey
Victoria-La Vallée Chuck Chiasson
3570
Danny Soucy
3212
Paul Plourde
468
Lina Chiasson
307
Chuck Chiasson
Edmundston-Madawaska Centre Jean-Claude (JC) D'Amours
4668
Gérald Levesque
1437
Sophie Vaillancourt
702
Anne-Marie Comeau
206
Vacant
Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston Francine Landry
4191
Jeannot Volpé
1826
Denis Boulet
945
Cécile Richard-Hébert
156
Francine Landry

Footnotes

  1. Following the election, Brian Gallant continued in office with a minority government. On November 1, 2018, Gallant's government was defeated in a confidence vote, prompting his resignation. Lieutenant Governor Jocelyne Roy-Vienneau then invited Progressive Conservative leader Blaine Higgs to form a minority government. Gallant's resignation was effective November 9, 2018, at which time Higgs was sworn in as premier.[2]

References

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  3. Legislative Assembly Act, Section 2(4).
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Further reading

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External links