Hungarian parliamentary election, 2014

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Hungarian parliamentary election, 2014
← 2010 6 April 2014 (2014-04-06) next →
All 199 seats in the Országgyűlés
100 seats needed for a majority
Turnout 61.73%
  First party Second party
  OrbanViktor 2011-01-07.jpg Mesterházy Attila 2009-12-14.JPG
Leader Viktor Orbán Attila Mesterházy
Party Fidesz Unity
Leader since 17 May 2003 14 January 2014
Last election 263 seats, 52.73% 59 seats, 19.30%
(MSZP only)
Seats won
133 / 199
Fidesz 117, KDNP 16
38 / 199
MSZP 29, Others 9
Popular vote 2,264,780 1,290,806
Percentage 44.87% 25.57%
Swing Decrease 7.86% Increase 6.27%
  Third party Fourth party
  Vona Gabor.jpg SchifferAndras.jpg
Leader Gábor Vona András Schiffer
Party Jobbik LMP
Leader since 25 November 2006 24 March 2013
Last election 47 seats, 16.67% 16 seats, 7.48%
Seats won
23 / 199
5 / 199
Popular vote 1,020,476 269,414
Percentage 20.22% 5.34%
Swing Increase 3.55% Decrease 2.14%
Hungarian National Assembly 2014.svg
Composition of the National Assembly
Prime Minister before election

Viktor Orbán
Fidesz

 Elected Prime Minister

Viktor Orbán
Fidesz

The 2014 Hungarian parliamentary election took place on 6 April 2014.[1] This parliamentary election was the 7th since the 1990 first multi-party election. The result was a victory for Fidesz–KDNP alliance, preserving its two-thirds majority with Viktor Orbán remaining Prime Minister.[2] It was the first election according to the new Constitution of Hungary which went into force on 1 January 2012. The new electoral law also entered into force that day. For the first time since Hungary's transition to democracy, the election had a single round. The voters elected 199 MPs instead of previous 386 lawmakers.[3][4]

Background

After the 2010 parliamentary election, Fidesz won a landslide victory, with Viktor Orbán being elected as Prime Minister. As a result of this election, his government was able to alter the National Constitution, as he garnered a two thirds majority.[5] The government was able to write a constitutional article that favored traditional marriages, as well as one that lowered the number of MPs elected from 386 to 199.[6]

Orbán and his government remained relatively popular in the months leading to the election. This was largely because of high GDP growth, increased industrial output, and a growth in the tourism sector.[7]

Candidates

Registered parties

Individual candidates

The National Election Office announced that a total of 2,304 possible candidates submitted the appropriate number of recommendations for the parliamentary election until 4 March by 3, p.m. deadline.[8] Finally, candidacy of 1,531 people has been accepted after completion of the registration process. The following table contains a selected list of numbers of individual candidates by county representation and party affiliation:

National lists

In accordance with the new election law, parties, which were able to run individual candidates in at least 27 constituencies in Budapest and at least nine counties, had the opportunity to set up a national list. On 21 February 2014, the National Election Committee (NVB) registered at first the joint list of the governing Fidesz–KDNP party alliance, led by PM Viktor Orbán and KDNP president Zsolt Semjén.[23]

Eighteen national party lists were registered until 8 March 2014, when the National Election Committee (NVI) approved the following 14 organizations (parties and electoral alliances), in addition to the parliamentary parties' list (Fidesz–KDNP, Unity, Jobbik and LMP), which have already successfully registered before that: Homeland Not For Sale Movement Party (HNEM), the communist Hungarian Workers' Party, Party for a Fit and Healthy Hungary (SEM), Andor Schmuck's Social Democratic Civic Party (Soc Dems), the former long-time parliamentary party Independent Smallholders, Agrarian Workers and Civic Party (FKGP), former House Speaker and Socialist party member Katalin Szili's Community for Social Justice People's Party (KTI), Gypsy Party of Hungary (MCP), Party of Greens (Greens), New Dimension Party (ÚDP), New Hungary Party (ÚMP), Together 2014 Party, Democratic Community of Welfare and Freedom (JESZ), Unity Party (ÖP) and Alliance of Mária Seres (SMS).[24] The following table contains only the incumbent parliamentary parties' national lists (first 20 members), which could won mandates:

Minority lists

The thirteen officially recognized national minorities could send minority spokespersons (Hungarian: nemzetiségi szószólók) to the National Assembly under the election law, who have the parliamentarians' rights (address the parliament) except for voting. However the minorities could set up each of national lists which chould produce full-fledged representatives if the concerned national list jumped over the 5 percent electoral threshold within minority votes.[30]

The Polish's was the first minority list which successfully registered by the National Election Committee (NVB) on 25 February 2014. Two days later, on 27 February, in addition to Polish, the NVB registered three national lists; the German, the Rusyn and the Serb minorities,[30] while also approved the lists of Armenians and Romanians on 1 March,[31] Bulgarians and Slovaks on 3 March, Croats, Ukrainians and Romani people on 4 March, and, finally, Greeks and Slovenes on 7 March.[32]

The officially recognized minority self-government organizations received a total of 298.5 million Ft (EUR 954,000) public support for campaign activity. The National Roma Council was awarded a significant portion of the funds – altogether 101 million forints – while the Bulgarians granted the lowest amount (8.4 million), according to official demographic ratios.[33]

Opinion polls

This chart illustrates the level of support for the Hungarian government party Fidesz among all eligible voters, as measured by the five polling institutions regularly conducting polling in Hungary, over the year 2013. Since many eligible Hungarian voters expressed no preference for any political party at all, these numbers are significantly lower than those for Fidesz support among decided voters.
This chart illustrates the level of support for the Hungarian government party Fidesz among decided voters, as measured by the five polling institutions regularly conducting polling in Hungary, over the year 2013. Please note the information in the footnotes about the selection and calculation of the Medián and Nézőpont numbers.

Methodological note: The Hungarian pollsters generally release separate data about the support of political parties among all eligible voters (which tends to include a high percentage for "don't know/no preference"), and about the support of political parties among "active" or "certain" voters. The table below refers to the latter data.[lower-alpha 1]

Support for the main Hungarian political parties among decided voters, as measured by the five regular polling institutions. Please note the clarifications about the selection and calculation of the Medián and Nézőpont data, and the calculation of the Unity average for the first month.

Results

Turnout[34]
7:00 9:00 11:00 13:00 15:00 17:30 Overall
1.64% 9.5% 23.23% 34.33% 45.02% 56.77% 61.73%
↓
133 38 23 5
Fidesz–KDNP Unity Jobbik LMP
e • d Summary of the 6 April 2014 election to the National Assembly (Országgyűlés)
Parties and coalitions Party list Constituency Total seats
Votes  % +/− Seats Votes Seats Seats +/−  % +/−
Fidesz–KDNP party alliance
Fidesz–KDNP pártszövetség		 Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Union (Fidesz)
Fidesz – Magyar Polgári Szövetség		 2,264,780 44.87 Decrease7.86 30 2,165,342 87 117 Decrease110 66.83 Decrease1.3
Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP)
Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt		 7 9 16 Decrease20
Unity
Összefogás		 Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP)
Magyar Szocialista Párt		 1,290,806 25.57 Increase6.27 21 1,317,879 8 29 Decrease30 19.10 Increase3.82
Together – Party for a New Era (Együtt)
Együtt – A Korszakváltók Pártja		 New 2 1 3 New
Democratic Coalition (DK)
Demokratikus Koalíció		 3 1 4
Dialogue for Hungary (PM)
Párbeszéd Magyarországért		 1 0 1
Hungarian Liberal Party (MLP)
Magyar Liberális Párt		 1 0 1
Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik)
Jobbik Magyarországért Mozgalom		 1,020,476 20.22 Increase3.55 23 1,000,637 0 23 Decrease24 11.56 Decrease0.62
Politics Can Be Different (LMP)
Lehet Más a Politika		 269,414 5.34 Decrease2.14 5 244,191 0 5 Decrease11 2.51 Decrease1.64
Hungarian Workers' Party
Magyar Munkáspárt		 28,323 0.56 Increase0.45 0 12,716 0 0 Steady0 0 0
The Homeland Not For Sale Movement Party (HNEM)
A Haza Nem Eladó Mozgalom Párt		 23,507 0.47 New 0 23,037 0 0 New 0 0
Alliance of Mária Seres (SMS)
Seres Mária Szövetségesei		 22,219 0.44 Decrease0.45 0 20,229 0 0 Steady0 0 0
Party of Greens (Greens)
Zöldek Pártja		 18,557 0.37 Increase0.37 0 9,392 0 0 Steady0 0 0
Social Democratic Hungarian Civic Party (Soc Dems)
Szociáldemokraták Magyar Polgári Pártja		 15,073 0.3 Increase0.22 0 12,232 0 0 Steady0 0 0
Together 2014 Party
Együtt 2014 Párt		 14,085 0.28 New 0 6,361 0 0 New 0 0
Party for a Fit and Healthy Hungary (SEM)
Sportos és Egészséges Magyarországért Párt		 12,563 0.25 New 0 11,746 0 0 New 0 0
Community for Social Justice People's Party (KTI)
Közösség a Társadalmi Igazságosságért Néppárt		 10,969 0.22 New 0 10,551 0 0 New 0 0
Democratic Community of Welfare and Freedom (JESZ)
Jólét és Szabadság Demokratikus Közösség		 9,925 0.2 New 0 13,051 0 0 New 0 0
Gypsy Party of Hungary (MCP)
Magyarországi Cigány Párt		 8,810 0.17 New 0 9,030 0 0 New 0 0
Independent Smallholders Party (FKGP)
Független Kisgazdapárt		 8,083 0.16 Increase0.16 0 7,175 0 0 Steady0 0 0
Unity Party (ÖP)
Összefogás Párt		 6,552 0.13 Increase0.06 0 6,887 0 0 Steady0 0 0
New Dimension Party (ÚDP)
Új Dimenzió Párt		 2,100 0.04 New 0 1,706 0 0 New 0 0
New Hungary Party (ÚMP)
Új Magyarország Párt		 1,578 0.03 New 0 2,018 0 0 New 0 0
Others and Independent candidates – – – – 34,432 0 0 Decrease1 0 Decrease0.26
13 minority lists (needed 22,022 votes/list for a mandate) 19,543 0.38 – – – – – – – –
Total (turnout 61.73% Decrease2.63pp) 5,047,363 100% – 93 4,908,608 106 199 Decrease187 100% –
Source: National Election Office (100.00% reporting)

Evaluation of the elections

Domestic

Fidesz's leader Viktor Orbán celebrated in Budapest with thousands of supporters in the evening and said that Hungary was on the threshold of a "new and wonderful epoch."

Jobbik leader Gábor Vona said that the party is now the "strongest national radical party" in the EU, as well as Hungary’s second largest political party". Jobbik continuously increases it popularity and ahead of the European parliament elections it is important to make this clear. [Yet even though] we outperformed pollsters’ expectations, but we were not able to achieve the goal we set for ourselves of winning the elections."

One of the five party alliance's leaders, Gordon Bajnai, said the result was a "crushing defeat" and a "great disappointment" for those who wanted change.[35]

International

The Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights Limited Election Observation Mission found that the elections were "efficiently administered and offered voters a diverse choice following an inclusive candidate registration process" but that Fidesz "enjoyed an undue advantage because of restrictive campaign regulations, biased media coverage and campaign activities that blurred the separation between political party and the State".[36]

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ In addition, confusingly, two pollsters publish parallel data even about "active" or "certain" voters. Thus, Medián publishes different numbers for the categories of "választani tudók" and "választani tudó "biztos" szavazók", though they don't tend to differ much – the data in the table here generally refers to the latter. Tárki's polling releases always highlight results about "A pártok támogatottsága a pártválasztók körében", and those are included in the table here (and can be reviewed further back into time in this database on their website), but their website also provides a separate database with somewhat different polling data on "A pártok támogatottságának alakulása a biztos szavazó pártválasztók körében". Finally, in February 2013 Nézőpont switched to a system in which it distinguishes between "the entire population" and "active voters", but even the "active voters" sample always includes a percentage of those who are "undecided but favour a change in government" and a percentage of those who are "undecided altogether". Those numbers are given in the footnotes for each Nézőpont poll in the table.
  2. ↑ Includes 1% for 4K! – Fourth Republic!.
  3. ↑ This poll has 20% undecideds, of which 10% fully undecided and 10% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
  4. ↑ This poll has 17% undecideds, of which 9% fully undecided and 8% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
  5. ↑ This poll has 15% undecideds, of which 6% fully undecided and 9% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
  6. ↑ This poll has 13% undecideds, of which 6% fully undecided and 7% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
  7. ↑ This poll has 20.6% undecideds, of which 11.6% fully undecided and 9% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
  8. ↑ This poll has 26% undecideds, of which 12% fully undecided and 14% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
  9. ↑ This poll has a separate share of undecideds, which Nézőpont usually breaks down between those fully undecided and those undecided but in favour of a change in government. This month that data does not appear to have been published though, but a total of 26% must have fallen in those two categories or expressed support for DK or the smallest parties ("Others").
  10. ↑ This poll has 17% undecideds, of which 10% fully undecided and 7% undecided but in favour of a change in government. In addition, this time the Nézőpont poll also provides data for "potenciális szavazók", which add up to 100%, leaving no number of undecided voters. The proportions are substantively different in this data, to the advantage of the MSzP: Fidesz 44%, MSzP 25%, Jobbik 14%, LMP 6%, DK 3%, E2014 7%.
  11. ↑ This poll has 18% undecideds, of which 10% fully undecided and 8% undecided but in favour of a change in government. In addition, this time the Nézopont poll also provides data for "potenciális szavazók", which add up to 100%, leaving no number of undecided voters. The proportions are substantively different in this data, to the advantage of the MSzP and E2014: Fidesz 42%, MSzP 23%, Jobbik 13%, LMP 6%, DK 4%, E2014 10%, Others 2%.
  12. ↑ This poll has 21% undecideds, of which 16% fully undecided and 5% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
  13. ↑ Includes 1% for Hungarian Liberal Party.
  14. ↑ This poll has 14% undecideds, of which 12% fully undecided and 2% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
  15. ↑ This poll has 14% undecideds, of which 9% fully undecided and 5% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
  16. ↑ This poll had 20% undecideds, of which 13% were fully undecided and 7% were undecided but in favour of a change in government. The figures presented represent decided voters.
  17. ↑ This poll had 19% undecideds, of which 13% were fully undecided and 6% undecided but in favour of a change in government. The figures presented represent decided voters.
  18. ↑ In addition to its polling data, Median provided a forecast for the election results: Fidesz/KDNP 38-44%; Unity 26-32%; Jobbik 21-25%; LMP 3-5%. See http://median.hu/object.cd804c1b-7e19-4376-ac97-b8089b67b753.ivy
  19. ↑ This polling data does not include the "active voters" category which Nezopont used (and this table reflected) since February 2013. It only has data for "the entire population", with 27% undecideds and non-voters, and for "potential voters", with no undecideds at all. This table therefore uses the latter data.
  20. ↑ In addition to this polling data for decided voters, Ipsos provided a forecast for the election results: Fidesz/KDNP 40-45%; Unity 26-31%; Jobbik 19-23%; LMP 4-6%.

References

  1. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  2. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  3. ↑ Az országgyűlési képviselők választásáról szóló 2011. évi CCIII. törvény. In.: Magyar Közlöny. 2011. évi, 165. sz., 41095-41099. p.
  4. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  11. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  12. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  16. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  19. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  20. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  21. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  22. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  23. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  24. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  25. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  26. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  27. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  28. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  29. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  30. ↑ 30.0 30.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  31. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  32. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  33. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  34. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  35. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  36. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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