False positives and false negatives

"False Positive" redirects here. For other uses, see False Positive (disambiguation).

In medical statistics, false positives and false negatives are concepts analogous to type I and type II errors in statistical hypothesis testing, where a positive result corresponds to rejecting the null hypothesis, and a negative result corresponds to not rejecting the null hypothesis. The terms are often used interchangeably, but there are differences in detail and interpretation.

False positive error

A false positive error, or in short false positive, commonly called a "false alarm", is a result that indicates a given condition has been fulfilled, when it actually has not been fulfilled. I.e. erroneously a positive effect has been assumed. In the case of "crying wolf" – the condition tested for was "is there a wolf near the herd?", the actual result was that there had not been a wolf near the herd. The shepherd wrongly indicated there was one, by calling "Wolf, wolf!".

A false positive error is a type I error where the test is checking a single condition, and results in an affirmative or negative decision usually designated as "true or false".

False negative error

A false negative error, or in short false negative, is where a test result indicates that a condition failed, while it actually was successful. I.e. erroneously no effect has been assumed. A common example is a guilty prisoner freed from jail. The condition: "Is the prisoner guilty?" is true (yes, the prisoner is guilty). But the test (a court of law) failed to realize this, and wrongly decided the prisoner was not guilty.

A false negative error is a type II error occurring in test steps where a single condition is checked for and the result can either be positive or negative.

Related terms

False positive and false negative rates

Main articles: Sensitivity and specificity and False positive rate

The false positive rate is the proportion of all negatives that still yield positive test outcomes, i.e., the conditional probability of a positive test result given an event that was not present.

The false positive rate is equal to the significance level. The specificity of the test is equal to 1 minus the false positive rate.

In statistical hypothesis testing, this fraction is given the Greek letter α, and 1−α is defined as the specificity of the test. Increasing the specificity of the test lowers the probability of type I errors, but raises the probability of type II errors (false negatives that reject the alternative hypothesis when it is true).

Complementarily, the false negative rate is the proportion of events that are being tested for which yield negative test outcomes with the test, i.e., the conditional probability of a negative test result given that the event being looked for has taken place.

In statistical hypothesis testing, this fraction is given the letter β. The "power" (or the "sensitivity") of the test is equal to 1−β.

Receiver operating characteristic

The article "Receiver operating characteristic" discusses parameters in statistical signal processing based on ratios of errors of various types.

Consequences

On the other hand, in many legal traditions there is a presumption of innocence, as stated in Blackstone's formulation that:

"It is better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer",

that is, that false negatives (a guilty person is acquitted and escapes) are far preferable to false positive (an innocent person is convicted and suffers). This is not universal, however, and some systems prefer to jail many innocent, rather than let a single guilty escape – the tradeoff varies between legal traditions.

External links

• Daily chart – Unlikely results - Why most published scientific research is probably false – Illustration of False positives and false negatives in The Economist appearing in the article Problems with scientific research How science goes wrong Scientific research has changed the world. Now it needs to change itself (19 October 2013)