2018 Minnesota gubernatorial election

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The 2018 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 6, to elect the 41st Governor of Minnesota as incumbent governor Mark Dayton chose not to run for re-election for a third term. The Democratic nominee was congressman Tim Walz from Minnesota's 1st congressional district while the Republicans nominated Hennepin County commissioner Jeff Johnson. The Independence Party of Minnesota didn't field a candidate for the first time since 1994. Going into the election the polls showed Walz ahead and the race was characterized as lean or likely DFL.

In the end, Walz went on to defeat Johnson by the largest margin for a DFL candidate since 1986. His victory also means that Minnesota will have its longest streak of Democrats in the Governor's mansion in the state's history, at 12 continuous years.

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Erin
Murphy		 Lori
Swanson		 Tim
Walz		 Other Undecided
Emerson College August 8–11, 2018 217 ± 6.9% 19% 29% 28% – 24%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 439 ± 5.6% 11% 28% 24% 1% 37%
GQR Research (D-Minnesota Victory PAC) June 25–27, 2018 602 – 17% 37% 29% 1%[53] 16%

Straw poll

File:Straw poll ballot at the Minnesota DFL February 2018 precinct caucuses (cropped).jpg
Straw poll ballot at the Minnesota DFL February 2018 precinct caucuses

On February 6, 2018 the DFL conducted a statewide straw poll among registered Democrats in Minnesota. Caucus-goers were scheduled to elect delegates to their party's Senate district and county conventions, which in turn will elect state convention delegates who will endorse candidates for governor, two U.S. Senate seats, attorney general, state auditor and secretary of state. Congressional district delegates will endorse U.S. House candidates. Since the straw poll the three lowest performing candidates withdrew from the race (Paul Thissen, Chris Coleman, and Tina Liebling).

Congressional
Unit		 Total
attendance		 Chris Coleman Tina Liebling Erin Murphy Rebecca Otto Paul Thissen Tim
Walz		 Other Uncommitted
1 2577 71 355 107 232 56 1558 4 163
2 3501 384 202 411 656 120 1156 4 523
3 4291 670 202 386 827 186 1362 8 530
4 6072 854 297 1111 1227 139 1384 11 897
5 9519 1019 457 1400 1462 537 2363 30 1137
6 2375 326 115 294 587 59 590 4 375
7 2121 124 106 274 405 172 761 4 273
8 3873 441 277 474 1082 263 759 8 527
Statewide 34329 3889 2011 4457 6478 1532 9933 73 4425
Percent - 11.86% 6.13% 13.59% 19.75% 4.67% 30.29% 0.22% 13.49%

Results

File:Democratic Primary for Minnesota Gubernatorial Election, 2018.svg
Results by county:
Walz
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Murphy
  •   40–50%
Swanson
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
DFL Tim Walz 242,832 41.60%
DFL Erin Murphy 186,969 32.03%
DFL Lori Swanson 143,517 24.59%
DFL Tim Holden 6,398 1.10%
DFL Olé Savior 4,019 0.69%
Total votes 583,735 100%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Jeff
Johnson		 Matt
Kruse		 Tim
Pawlenty		 Other Undecided
Emerson College August 8–11, 2018 156 ± 8.0% 34% – 43% – 23%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 340 ± 6.4% 32% – 51% 1% 16%
BK Strategies (R) June 24–25, 2018 439 ± 4.7% 20% 3% 54% – 23%

Results

File:Minnesota Governor GOPPrimary Results by County, 2018.svg
Results by county:
Johnson
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
Pawlenty
  •   60-70%
  •   50-60%
  •   40–50%
Republican Party of Minnesota primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jeff Johnson 168,841 52.61%
Republican Tim Pawlenty 140,743 43.86%
Republican Mathew Kruse 11,330 3.53%
Total votes 320,914 100%

Third parties and independents

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[97] Likely DFL October 5, 2018
The Washington Post[98] Lean DFL October 16, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[99] Likely DFL October 17, 2018
Inside Elections[100] Likely DFL October 12, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[101] Lean DFL October 11, 2018
RealClearPolitics[102] Lean DFL October 12, 2018
Daily Kos[103] Lean DFL October 5, 2018
Fox News[104][lower-alpha 1] Lean DFL October 12, 2018
Politico[105] Likely DFL October 12, 2018
Governing[106] Lean DFL October 2, 2018
Notes

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Debates

The debate season began only three days after the primaries with Johnson and Walz participating in two debates on Friday, August 17. A third debate was held Friday, August 31.[107][108]

Host
network/sponsors		 Date Link(s) Participants
Tim
Walz (DFL)		 Jeff
Johnson (R)
MPR News August 31, 2018 [108] Invited Invited
KSTP-TV August 17, 2018 [109] Invited Invited
Twin Cities PBS (Almanac) August 17, 2018 [110] Invited Invited

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Tim
Walz (D)		 Jeff
Johnson (R)		 Josh
Welter (L)		 Other Undecided
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 953 – 53% 41% 2% 2%[128] –
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 48% 42% – 1% 9%
SurveyUSA October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 5.3% 49% 41% – 2% 9%
Mason-Dixon October 15–17, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 45% 39% 3% 2%[128] 12%
Change Research October 12–13, 2018 1,413 – 47% 44% 3% 4%[129] 2%
Marist College September 30 – October 4, 2018 637 LV ± 4.9% 51% 36% 6% <1% 6%
55% 38% – <1% 7%
860 RV ± 4.2% 49% 37% 7% <1% 7%
53% 39% – 1% 8%
Mason-Dixon September 10–12, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 45% 36% 1% 2%[128] 16%
SurveyUSA September 6–8, 2018 574 ± 4.9% 47% 40% – 3% 10%
Suffolk University August 17–20, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 46% 41% 1% 1%[130] 12%
Emerson College August 8–11, 2018 500 ± 4.6% 40% 33% – – 27%

Results

Minnesota gubernatorial election, 2018[131]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
DFL Tim Walz/Peggy Flanagan 1,393,096 53.84% +3.77%
Republican Jeff Johnson/Donna Bergstrom 1,097,705 42.43% -2.08%
Grassroots Chris Wright/Judith Schwartzbacker 68,667 2.65% +1.07%
Libertarian Josh Welter/Mary O'Connor 26,735 1.03% +0.11%
n/a Write-ins 1,084 0.04% 0.00%
Total votes 2,587,287 100.0% N/A
DFL hold

Voter demographics

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup Walz Johnson No
Answer		  % of
Voters
Gender
Men 48 51 1 46
Women 61 37 2 54
Age
18–24 years old 71 25 4 6
25–29 years old 54 44 2 5
30–39 years old 60 38 2 12
40–49 years old 51 46 3 13
50–64 years old 54 45 1 29
65 and older 54 46 N/A 35
Race
White 53 46 1 89
Black 84 14 2 5
Latino N/A N/A N/A 3
Asian N/A N/A N/A 2
Other N/A N/A N/A 2
Race by gender
White men 46 53 1 41
White women 59 39 2 48
Black men N/A N/A N/A 3
Black women N/A N/A N/A 2
Latino men N/A N/A N/A 1
Latino women N/A N/A N/A 1
Others N/A N/A N/A 3
Education
High school or less 53 46 1 17
Some college education 49 50 1 24
Associate degree 49 50 1 17
Bachelor's degree 58 40 2 26
Advanced degree 71 28 1 16
Education and race
White college graduates 62 36 2 38
White no college degree 47 52 1 51
Non-white college graduates 70 26 4 4
Non-white no college degree 74 23 3 7
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees 69 30 1 21
White women without college degrees 52 46 2 28
White men with college degrees 55 44 1 17
White men without college degrees 41 59 N/A 23
Non-whites 73 24 3 11
Income
Under $30,000 63 34 3 14
$30,000–49,999 54 43 3 21
$50,000–99,999 48 51 1 36
$100,000–199,999 55 42 3 23
Over $200,000 N/A N/A N/A 7
Party ID
Democrats 95 5 N/A 39
Republicans 10 90 N/A 32
Independents 53 44 3 28
Party by gender
Democratic men 94 5 1 14
Democratic women 95 4 1 25
Republican men 8 92 N/A 16
Republican women 12 88 N/A 17
Independent men 48 50 2 16
Independent women 60 36 4 13
Ideology
Liberals 95 3 2 27
Moderates 66 33 1 39
Conservatives 11 88 1 33
Marital status
Married 48 50 2 68
Unmarried 64 34 2 32
Gender by marital status
Married men 44 55 1 31
Married women 52 46 2 36
Unmarried men 52 44 4 15
Unmarried women 73 25 2 18
First-time midterm election voter
Yes 52 46 2 12
No 59 41 N/A 88
Most important issue facing the country
Health care 74 24 2 50
Immigration 20 79 1 22
Economy 30 67 3 18
Gun policy N/A N/A N/A 8
Area type
Urban 68 31 1 40
Suburban 51 47 2 32
Rural 42 57 1 28
Source: CNN[132]

See also

References

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External links

Official campaign websites
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  17. ↑ The Timberjay. Quote: "Bakk said he had been considering his own bid for governor had the party failed to endorse a candidate, but he said the recent announcement by Republican Sen. Michelle Fischbach to resign her Senate seat to run with Tim Pawlenty helped to clarify his priorities."
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  33. ↑ LBTQ Victory Fund endorsed Erin Maye Quade for Lieutenant Governor Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  53. ↑ Tim Holden and Ole Savior with 0%, other 1%
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  64. ↑ The Associated Press, "Republican Matt Dean Is No Longer Running For Governor", WCCO, January 25, 2018. Retrieved January 25, 2018.
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  107. ↑ http://www.startribune.com/candidates-for-minnesota-governor-meeting-for-first-debate/491110451/
  108. ↑ 108.0 108.1 https://www.mprnews.org/story/2018/08/28/tim-walz-jeff-johnson-debate-at-minnesota-state-fair-governor-race-2018-election
  109. ↑ https://kstp.com/politics/jeff-johnson-tim-walz-participate-debate-nisswa-minnesota-gubernatorial-race/5034677/
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  115. ↑ "Republican race for governor: Matt Dean drops out, throws support behind Jeff Johnson", Twin Cities Pioneer Press, January 25, 2018. Retrieved January 25, 2018.
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  128. ↑ 128.0 128.1 128.2 Chris Wright (GLC) with 2%
  129. ↑ Chris Wright (GLC) with 4%
  130. ↑ Chris Wright (GLC) with 1%
  131. ↑ https://www.sos.state.mn.us/elections-voting/2018-general-election-results/
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